Illawarra overtakes Central Coast in unaffordability: 44% more areas shifted to 'impossibly unaffordable' in five years

Move South, they say.

Beat Sydney’s unaffordable house prices, they say.

Three bedrooms and plenty of room for the kids to run around, they say.

So at Airteam, we decided to challenge the ‘move to the regions’ and live the good life idea and worked with our data partner Primara Research to get a feel for just how true the idea is.

TLDR: The Illawarra is no longer a refuge from Sydney prices. Indeed, the data says it hasn't been for some time.

We found out exactly how bad it has gotten and where the pressure is hitting hardest. What came back was starker than we expected.

No suburb in the Illawarra qualifies as affordable. Not one:

• 65% are classified as impossibly unaffordable.
• The remaining 35% are severely unaffordable.
• Those are the only two categories left in the region.

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The rankings shift. How Illawarra overtook regions it once trailed

In 2019, Illawarra ranked 15th out of 28 NSW regions for housing unaffordability. It now ranks sixth. Nine places in five years, one of the sharpest deteriorations of any region in the state.

But the ranking shift is almost secondary to what happened inside it.

The region has overtaken both the Central Coast and the Sutherland Shire.

Moving south from Sydney's Sutherland Shire used to buy you better affordability: it no longer does.

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The price-to-income gap: where financial stress is hitting hardest

Our mapping identifies exactly where financial stress is landing hardest and the results aren't where most people would look first:

• Windang and Primbee have the worst affordability ratio in the region at 15.8 times local household income.
• Median prices sit at $1.09 million, not the highest in the Illawarra.
• The ratio is extreme because local incomes are low, not because prices are exceptional.
• Kiama Hinterland is the steepest collapse.

This is not a natural market adjustment: it’s a market departing from what local incomes can sustain.

• At the top end, Thirroul, Austinmer and Coalcliff command median prices of $1.92 million.
• Kiama Hinterland sits at $1.68 million.
• These are Sydney prices sitting on top of Illawarra wages.

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The inland surge. Pressure relief suburbs are filling fast

The population data tells you exactly what the affordability data predicts.

Buyers priced out of coastal and hinterland areas are moving inland. Fast.

• Horsley and Kembla Grange grew 34.3%
• Albion Park and Macquarie Pass surged 39.5%
• Overall Illawarra growth over the same period: 5%

These aren't lifestyle destinations. They are pressure-relief suburbs absorbing buyers who have run out of options closer to the coast.

And they are still severely unaffordable — sitting at six to seven times household incomes. The most accessible parts of the region still carry real financial stress for anyone who buys there. The escape valve is itself under pressure.

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The bigger shift

When it comes to the Illawarra, buyers are making hard calculations.

• They are moving inland not by preference but by elimination.
• They are paying multiples of local income that would have been considered extreme five years ago.
• And the regions they once looked to as more affordable than Sydney have, in measurable terms, caught up.

The 44% shift into impossibly unaffordable territory is not a projection. It has already happened. The 35% of areas still classified as severely unaffordable represent the remaining question, whether that category holds, or follows the same trajectory.

The data doesn't predict that outcome. It simply shows what the last five years looked like, applied forward.

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About the Data

The data analysed by Primara Research in conjunction with Airteam uses multiple sources to build an affordability index and track population growth. Data is sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, including population data, wage price index data, and census data by SA2, SA3, and SA4 levels as at the latest data at June 2024. The analysis also incorporates property price data from the NSW Valuer General. The affordability index applies measures consistent with the 2024 Demographia report on international affordability. SA2 regions were excluded from the analysis where annual sales totalled 25 or fewer, ensuring consistent average index numbers.

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